Contrary to prevailing narratives about an increasingly degree-dependent labor market, our analysis suggests that fewer than half of all jobs in 2035 will require a college degree or other postsecondary credential. This conclusion is based on our analysis of 831 occupational categories tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), representing approximately 153 million jobs across the United States.
Although many projections and public discussions suggest that as many as 72 percent of jobs will require a college degree or other postsecondary credential, our analysis of BLS occupational data indicates that only 48 percent of jobs will require some level of postsecondary education or training.
Of all jobs projected for 2035, only 35 percent will require a bachelor's, graduate, or professional degree. Another 6 percent will require an associate's degree, while 7 percent will require less than an associate's degree or some college experience without a degree.
This does not diminish the value of higher education. Jobs requiring college-level education generally provide substantially higher earnings, stronger benefits, and greater long-term career opportunities. However, the largest sources of job growth between 2025 and 2035 are projected to be in occupations such as home health and personal care aides (+835,000 jobs), stockers and order fillers (+250,700 jobs), and fast-food and counter workers (+223,300 jobs). None of these occupations typically requires a postsecondary credential, and some do not require a high school diploma.
SOURCE: EPICenter (October 2026)(opens in new tab), Educational Policy Institute; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Occupational Projects Data. Data downloaded on September 25, 2026 and analyzed by EPI. (https://data.bls.gov/projections/occupationProj).